he Dally M is USUALLY awarded to the NRL's best player of the season, best positional players, best rookie, coach, captain and an assortment of other awards. However, there are some pretty egregious exceptions to the rule where players are awarded over a clearly better player or even players. The system in place is antiquated, open to significant voting bias and skews very heavily towards rocks and diamonds players over consistent performers.
We hear the complaints every season from fans and media when [player-I-don't-like] wins an award over [player-from-my-team]. What we don't hear are solutions to fixing the system. Here's my proposal, for better (maybe) or worse (probably): Problems
Solutions Judges Judges must meet the following criteria:
1. Annual awards are granted purely on the points accumulated for the season (NRL and NRLW):
What do you think? Do you have any solutions to improve the quality of the Dally Ms? Related: Dally M voting 2019 and 2020
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Notes:
Round 2: South Sydney (67.2%) @ St George Illawarra (32.8%) Bunnies handed the Chooks their tail feathers in a very strong opening to the Uncle Wayne era. The backline still looked slick and the forwards imposing. The Dragons had a shocker and were only two points behind a poor Cowboys team at half time. They improved in the second half but not by as much as the Cowboys. They'll only improve, but I don't see them improving enough to stop a red hot Souths. Souths by 8 Melbourne (62.4%) @ Canberra (37.6%) Doesn't matter who plays for the Storm, they always seem to perform. Brisbane were sloppy early and the Storm methodically knocked them out of the game. JAC was very quiet thanks to the Broncos' strategy of kicking bombs to him to take him out of sets and tire him. Raiders were controlled, calm and deliberate in their solid win over a disrupted Titan side. Bateman looks like a real find and Wighton should improve. Melbourne should continue their relentless march to finals football. Melbourne by 6 North Queensland (45.7%) @ Brisbane (54.3%) JT13. Brisbane were a bit flat and continued to struggle with end of set options. Matt Gillett tackled himself to a standstill in an excellent return from injury. With Matt Lodge and Payne Haas missing, can TPJ and Joe O match the Cows middles for 80 minutes? Nope. North Queensland by 1 Gold Coast (23.3%) @ Cronulla (76.7%) The Titans lost their two starting play-makers by the 15th minute and looked lost and confused. Defensively they seemed slow and their outside backs had trouble numbering up. The Sharks were well below their own par with Duges having an abysmal first half and Gal getting sledged into oblivion. Which team is most likely to bounce back? Sharks by 12 Penrith (55.7%) @ Newcastle (44.3%) The Penrith backline lacked respect for the ball combining for a seemingly endless supply of possession for the Eels. Their forwards didn't have the energy or will to assert authority over a pack missing its leader for 65 minutes. Newcastle Eddrick'd themselves out of the game then back into it. Probably should have put a very disappointing Sharks side away, but a win is always good. Penrith by 2 Sydney (84.3%) @ Manly (15.7%) Chooks looked a step slow as their pack reverted to norm with silly errors and sluggish play. I don't see this being something that Robbo will accept so expect that to be an aberration rather than the norm going forward. Manly had moments of promise sprinkled on their turd sandwich on the weekend. The team that can least afford to lose any depth really needs Tommy Turbo back to spark them. Sydney by 18 Parramatta (50.8%) @ Canterbury (49.2%) Spoon? What spoon? Parramatta surprised most with a solid first up win off the back of some toilers up front and a more balanced halves combination. Canterbury were pretty horrible across the park against the Warriors and were blown away in convincing fashion. It's hard to see them bouncing back enough to get over a confident Eels team, but stranger things have happened. This is a real toss of the coin. Parramatta by 2 Warriors (55.2%) @ Wests Tigers (44.8%) I've said a few times that I think the Warriors are the only side that could win the premiership OR win the spoon this season. After their first up performance I'll have to withdraw the latter. Tigers' old guys lifting at Liechhardt is pretty much a story set in stone. What's probably not as obvious is how good their young middle rotation could be. Twal, Aloiai and Mickaele all had 100m/20 tackle games and looked capable of even more. Warriors by 6
Welcome back to a brand, spanking, shiny new season of NRL Power Rankings. For those who haven't been with us for long, each week I post a purely mathematical ranking of the form of teams based solely on their wins, losses, margins, home vs away and strength of their opponents. It's not even close to perfect, but it's a little bit of fun. If you're interested in learning more, check out this post.
For those who are used to the old Power Rankings, there are a few surprises this season.
Brisbane (33.8%) @ Melbourne (66.2%)
Brisbane have been all the rage in the off-season off the back of a new coach and an exceptional crop of young forwards. Jack Bird's return is offset by the loss of Payne Haas to suspension and minor injury to TPJ. By comparison, Melbourne have been very quiet in the off-season. They've lost Josh Drinkwater for most of the season and Joe Stimson is a little banged up. Can Bellyache cover for the loss of Slater? Toss of a coin match with the Storm pipping the Broncos on the back of home field advantage. Storm by 4. Cronulla (75.8%) @ Newcastle (24.2%) Sharks have had a drama filled off-season, lost a stack of firepower and yet still boast a very strong team. The loss of their coach and most of their backline attacking spark might be enough to spoil another team's mojo, but the Sharks are tougher than most. Newcastle are massively over-hyped coming off 12 losses in their last 16 games. They've recruited well, but might take a few rounds to settle their combinations. Sharks by 8. South Sydney (24.6%) @ Sydney (75.4%) - Match of the Round Bunnies swapped one of the best young coaches for one of the greatest old coaches in a massive shakeup. Losing Chrichton will hurt while Jennings will be easily replaced. The Chooks won the Grand Final through an extremely impressive forward pack. Their pigs have been inconsistent and error riddled in recent years, but might be about to turn the corner. Is that fair in a competition in which they are already clear favourites? Roosters by 12. Canterbury (38.5%) @ Warriors (61.5%) Two sides that have been tipped for the spoon but are both capable of being in the running for finals football if they get it right. Bulldogs are my tip for the most underrated team with a very solid pack and surprisingly capable outside backs. Their season might already be in the hands of their halves who will likely determine whether they sink or swim. Warriors could be anything - really. I think they're the only team capable of being premiers or wooden spooners. I don't see them regressing much despite the loss of Shaun Johnson, but they might just miss the eight. Warriors by 6. Manly (36%) @ Wests Tigers (64%) The drama bowl of Round 1? Manly are battling suspension, injury and a reduced salary cap. Their margin for error is already very slim with a lack of depth in the forwards, spine and backs. Tigers started last season in resounding form tackling their opponents into submission in the early rounds. Their side is older in key positions and could rise or fall based on injuries. Only a fool or a genius could tip against the Tigers at Leichhardt and win. Tigers by 8. St George Illawarra (53.9%) @ North Queensland (46.1%) Dragons have a massive drama off the field that's likely to continue for many months. With a court date two days before their first game of the season likely to determine the availability of JDB, the distraction must have an impact on the team. Corey Norman is a hug plus in their kicking game, while Widdop's shift to fullback shouldn't detract from his impact. The Cows have had their own problems with a bit of rain not only washing out valuable pre-season training, but resulting in some staff and players still living in temporary accommodation. They have a remodelled spin, new left edge in attack and no JT for the first time since Gus was relevant. Cowboys by 2. Parramatta (24.1%) @ Penrith (75.9%) My personal favourite rivalry in the NRL. The battle for the west (sorry Tigers fans) tends to bring out the best in both teams. Unfortunately, the Eels crumbled last season and don't look like they've rebuilt much. The prospect of back-to-back spoons might not be a consideration for a few months yet, but it's looking like a possibility. Penrith have snared their dream coach but maintained a fairly stable team. Their capitulation in the final s last season will be fresh motivation. I don't think shifting the worst defender from one sode of the field to the other will work long term, but I think it's a very clever move for a few rounds. Penrith by 18. Canberra (62.2%) @ Gold Coast (37.8%) Ricky has thrown out the biggest pack in the league and will now field one of the smallest and most mobile. His halves are still a dog's breakfast and he's going to be missing plenty of strike power without Rapana for the first couple of months. Nick Cotric is a beast and might be able to make up for a big chunk of that loss. The Titans have quietly recruited extremely well filling some important gaps in their roster. I think they'll be a step ahead of where they were last season and end up on the fringe of the eight. AJ Brimson might be recovering from injury from the bench for a round or two which will be a big blow, but Tyrone Roberts return will be huge. Titans by 1.
TLDR: I like Power Rankings and post them every week, for a bit of fun.
I've been playing around with power rankings for the NRL for a few years now and have made some interesting improvements and a bunch of even more interesting mistakes. I'm pretty happy with the current model after adding a few features over the years. I've also updated the scale and adjusted a few variables to cater (hopefully) to a broader audience. The system I use is subject to change, hopefully for the better. How does the system work? My NRL Power Rankings ("PR) started as a simple ELO system borrowed from the one originally created by Arpad Elo to rank chess players and more recently applied to a number of sports including soccer and NFL. The system is used to follow trends and generate a predictive formula to suggest probability of victory in future games. Pretty simple concept? They always start out that way... Wikipedia: The ELO rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitor-versus-competitor games such as chess. It is named after its creator Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-born American physics professor. The formula for ELO is fairly straight forward, although it has been altered to suit various sports: (from www.eloratings.net). If you're into the maths of the system, this is a great place to start. If not, the formula and description below should be enough to get by: Rn = Ro + K × (W - We) [New PR] = [Old PR] + [Margin of Victory] x ([Result] - [Likelihood of Victory]) My PR use the same base formula but have some scaling and tweaks to a couple of the variables: K varies in the following way:
K scaling by margin is based on historical scores for the NRL to reflect the likelihood of a margin of victory. A win by 40 points or more occurs in less than 5% of matches and is therefore weighted higher than a win by 10 points or less (50% of all matches). There are diminishing returns for margin of victory with a 100 point win only marginally worth more than a 50 point win - neither is at all likely. Home ground advantage is reduced by 50% for matches outside a team's traditional home area - eg home games taken to Darwin, Perth or Adelaide are less of a home ground advantage. It could be argued that the home ground advantage could be applied to the away team in situations like Souths having home games against North Queensland in Cairns. I may look into this if I add in future factors such as travel and days rest. For now, I'm keeping it relatively simple. Rather than a traditional 1,500 median scale, I've converted scores into a 0-100 scale which looks and feels more relatable. While it's possible to exceed 100 points or drop below 0 points, in more than 100 seasons this has never happened. PR gains and losses essentially scale based on two key variables: the margin of victory and the likelihood of winning. A larger margin generates a greater change in PR. A bigger upset generates a greater change in PR. The scaling can mean that a heavy favourite might win by 30 and receive a smaller increase in PR than an underdog that wins by 10. This is very much intended. My PR use a standard zero-sum system. This means that if the winning team gains three points, the losing team loses three points. This prevents excessive inflation (and deflation?) of scores and rankings. It also means we can track against historical seasons in a meaningful way. I've set the key formula variables based on a few important criteria:
What these Power Rankings DO:
What these Power Rankings DON'T do:
This is not intended to be a replacement system for human interpretation of power rankings. There are pundits out there who do a very good job of identifying trends, as well as some who seem to be completely clueless - I'll let you make up your own mind on which experts fall into which category. This PR system is just another voice in the chorus. Take from it as much or as little as you like. The initial power rankings at the beginning of each season will likely be less reflective of actual results but over time should become more and more accurate. Round 1 is usually quite messy, in a similar way to the unpredictability of tipping competitions for the first few rounds. Teams rise and fall each season for expected and unexpected reasons. West Tigers in early 2018 are a great example of a team that was surprisingly successful for a number of weeks. At the start of each season all PR are adjusted towards the mean (50) by a % factor. This essentially evens the competition at the start of the season by reducing the teams finishing the previous season with a PR above 50 down towards the mean and teams below 50 up towards the mean. Can I use these Power Rankings to make me rich? Probably not. If my system was good enough to make reliable money, do you think I'd be sharing it publicly? The intent of the system is to have a bit of fun with data, look at trends in team performance and add a little interest to the NRL season. You might be able to use them to make your tipping or gambling slightly more successful but I wouldn't be putting my house on it. Historical Data My system uses data that goes back to 1908 and has every result from the NSWRL, ARL, Super League and NRL eras. There have been a number of end of season adjustments when teams have been added, merged or have left the competition. There have also been a couple of full resets (all teams revert back to 50PR) at the beginning of the Super League in 1997 when the competition was split in two and the start of the NRL era in 1998. Power Ranking examples NSWRL Round 1 1908 - Norths @ Souths
NRL Round 1 2018 - Brisbane @ St George Illawarra
What's next? I'll continue to post the NRL Power Rankings on /r/NRL with a copy here for those who don't use Reddit. I also post a weekly prediction of the remainder of the season using updated PR and win probabilities averaged over 10,001 simulated seasons. I'll put up a separate post about predictions in the coming days. Happy to receive suggestions, questions and comments from new consumers of the Power Rankings or old heads. Enjoy :)
How much of an impact does a short turnaround or extra days rest have on your chances of winning in the NRL? The longer the rest, the lesser the home ground advantage.
Only 20 sleeps until BBL08 so I thought I'd take a quick look at what to expect from each and every ball based on the past seven seasons. Interesting to see the clear shift shown at the end of the powerplay with a drop in dot balls and fours - replaced by runs off the bat.
We all know the NRL Draw is unbalanced with teams not playing a full home and away schedule. There's also been talk about short turnarounds which the NRL has worked hard to try to balance. What we don't hear about is the massive discrepancy in travel.
How often is the ball in play during an NRL game? According to NRL.com, it's 52 mins and 38 seconds on average in 2018.
BBL08 draw has just been released with an expanded competition to include full home and away fixtures. With crowds dropping last season (except the Scorchers), games on the Gold Coast and a new broadcaster, it will be interesting to see how fans respond.
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AuthorAll data is gathered from publicly available information - mostly from NRL.com, Rugby League Project and Wikipedia. No guarantees are made for the accuracy of data published. I do this purely for fun, as a sports and analytics fan. Archives
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