Notes:
Round 2: South Sydney (67.2%) @ St George Illawarra (32.8%) Bunnies handed the Chooks their tail feathers in a very strong opening to the Uncle Wayne era. The backline still looked slick and the forwards imposing. The Dragons had a shocker and were only two points behind a poor Cowboys team at half time. They improved in the second half but not by as much as the Cowboys. They'll only improve, but I don't see them improving enough to stop a red hot Souths. Souths by 8 Melbourne (62.4%) @ Canberra (37.6%) Doesn't matter who plays for the Storm, they always seem to perform. Brisbane were sloppy early and the Storm methodically knocked them out of the game. JAC was very quiet thanks to the Broncos' strategy of kicking bombs to him to take him out of sets and tire him. Raiders were controlled, calm and deliberate in their solid win over a disrupted Titan side. Bateman looks like a real find and Wighton should improve. Melbourne should continue their relentless march to finals football. Melbourne by 6 North Queensland (45.7%) @ Brisbane (54.3%) JT13. Brisbane were a bit flat and continued to struggle with end of set options. Matt Gillett tackled himself to a standstill in an excellent return from injury. With Matt Lodge and Payne Haas missing, can TPJ and Joe O match the Cows middles for 80 minutes? Nope. North Queensland by 1 Gold Coast (23.3%) @ Cronulla (76.7%) The Titans lost their two starting play-makers by the 15th minute and looked lost and confused. Defensively they seemed slow and their outside backs had trouble numbering up. The Sharks were well below their own par with Duges having an abysmal first half and Gal getting sledged into oblivion. Which team is most likely to bounce back? Sharks by 12 Penrith (55.7%) @ Newcastle (44.3%) The Penrith backline lacked respect for the ball combining for a seemingly endless supply of possession for the Eels. Their forwards didn't have the energy or will to assert authority over a pack missing its leader for 65 minutes. Newcastle Eddrick'd themselves out of the game then back into it. Probably should have put a very disappointing Sharks side away, but a win is always good. Penrith by 2 Sydney (84.3%) @ Manly (15.7%) Chooks looked a step slow as their pack reverted to norm with silly errors and sluggish play. I don't see this being something that Robbo will accept so expect that to be an aberration rather than the norm going forward. Manly had moments of promise sprinkled on their turd sandwich on the weekend. The team that can least afford to lose any depth really needs Tommy Turbo back to spark them. Sydney by 18 Parramatta (50.8%) @ Canterbury (49.2%) Spoon? What spoon? Parramatta surprised most with a solid first up win off the back of some toilers up front and a more balanced halves combination. Canterbury were pretty horrible across the park against the Warriors and were blown away in convincing fashion. It's hard to see them bouncing back enough to get over a confident Eels team, but stranger things have happened. This is a real toss of the coin. Parramatta by 2 Warriors (55.2%) @ Wests Tigers (44.8%) I've said a few times that I think the Warriors are the only side that could win the premiership OR win the spoon this season. After their first up performance I'll have to withdraw the latter. Tigers' old guys lifting at Liechhardt is pretty much a story set in stone. What's probably not as obvious is how good their young middle rotation could be. Twal, Aloiai and Mickaele all had 100m/20 tackle games and looked capable of even more. Warriors by 6
0 Comments
Welcome back to a brand, spanking, shiny new season of NRL Power Rankings. For those who haven't been with us for long, each week I post a purely mathematical ranking of the form of teams based solely on their wins, losses, margins, home vs away and strength of their opponents. It's not even close to perfect, but it's a little bit of fun. If you're interested in learning more, check out this post.
For those who are used to the old Power Rankings, there are a few surprises this season.
Brisbane (33.8%) @ Melbourne (66.2%)
Brisbane have been all the rage in the off-season off the back of a new coach and an exceptional crop of young forwards. Jack Bird's return is offset by the loss of Payne Haas to suspension and minor injury to TPJ. By comparison, Melbourne have been very quiet in the off-season. They've lost Josh Drinkwater for most of the season and Joe Stimson is a little banged up. Can Bellyache cover for the loss of Slater? Toss of a coin match with the Storm pipping the Broncos on the back of home field advantage. Storm by 4. Cronulla (75.8%) @ Newcastle (24.2%) Sharks have had a drama filled off-season, lost a stack of firepower and yet still boast a very strong team. The loss of their coach and most of their backline attacking spark might be enough to spoil another team's mojo, but the Sharks are tougher than most. Newcastle are massively over-hyped coming off 12 losses in their last 16 games. They've recruited well, but might take a few rounds to settle their combinations. Sharks by 8. South Sydney (24.6%) @ Sydney (75.4%) - Match of the Round Bunnies swapped one of the best young coaches for one of the greatest old coaches in a massive shakeup. Losing Chrichton will hurt while Jennings will be easily replaced. The Chooks won the Grand Final through an extremely impressive forward pack. Their pigs have been inconsistent and error riddled in recent years, but might be about to turn the corner. Is that fair in a competition in which they are already clear favourites? Roosters by 12. Canterbury (38.5%) @ Warriors (61.5%) Two sides that have been tipped for the spoon but are both capable of being in the running for finals football if they get it right. Bulldogs are my tip for the most underrated team with a very solid pack and surprisingly capable outside backs. Their season might already be in the hands of their halves who will likely determine whether they sink or swim. Warriors could be anything - really. I think they're the only team capable of being premiers or wooden spooners. I don't see them regressing much despite the loss of Shaun Johnson, but they might just miss the eight. Warriors by 6. Manly (36%) @ Wests Tigers (64%) The drama bowl of Round 1? Manly are battling suspension, injury and a reduced salary cap. Their margin for error is already very slim with a lack of depth in the forwards, spine and backs. Tigers started last season in resounding form tackling their opponents into submission in the early rounds. Their side is older in key positions and could rise or fall based on injuries. Only a fool or a genius could tip against the Tigers at Leichhardt and win. Tigers by 8. St George Illawarra (53.9%) @ North Queensland (46.1%) Dragons have a massive drama off the field that's likely to continue for many months. With a court date two days before their first game of the season likely to determine the availability of JDB, the distraction must have an impact on the team. Corey Norman is a hug plus in their kicking game, while Widdop's shift to fullback shouldn't detract from his impact. The Cows have had their own problems with a bit of rain not only washing out valuable pre-season training, but resulting in some staff and players still living in temporary accommodation. They have a remodelled spin, new left edge in attack and no JT for the first time since Gus was relevant. Cowboys by 2. Parramatta (24.1%) @ Penrith (75.9%) My personal favourite rivalry in the NRL. The battle for the west (sorry Tigers fans) tends to bring out the best in both teams. Unfortunately, the Eels crumbled last season and don't look like they've rebuilt much. The prospect of back-to-back spoons might not be a consideration for a few months yet, but it's looking like a possibility. Penrith have snared their dream coach but maintained a fairly stable team. Their capitulation in the final s last season will be fresh motivation. I don't think shifting the worst defender from one sode of the field to the other will work long term, but I think it's a very clever move for a few rounds. Penrith by 18. Canberra (62.2%) @ Gold Coast (37.8%) Ricky has thrown out the biggest pack in the league and will now field one of the smallest and most mobile. His halves are still a dog's breakfast and he's going to be missing plenty of strike power without Rapana for the first couple of months. Nick Cotric is a beast and might be able to make up for a big chunk of that loss. The Titans have quietly recruited extremely well filling some important gaps in their roster. I think they'll be a step ahead of where they were last season and end up on the fringe of the eight. AJ Brimson might be recovering from injury from the bench for a round or two which will be a big blow, but Tyrone Roberts return will be huge. Titans by 1. |
AuthorAll data is gathered from publicly available information - mostly from NRL.com, Rugby League Project and Wikipedia. No guarantees are made for the accuracy of data published. I do this purely for fun, as a sports and analytics fan. Archives
October 2020
Categories
All
|